Timing the Market: When is the Best Time to Buy or Sell Real Estate?

I get a frequent question about timing the market: When is the best time to sell and when is the best time to buy? I decided to jump into the NWMLS stats and see if I could find any compelling evidence one way or another. When I constrained for “total closed homes” in King County for residential and condos, a striking pattern emerged.

Year after year, for at least the past decade (that’s as far back as I can graph), there is a spike at May/June, and total closed homes drop till the end of the year. Some years, there is a significant tick up at the end of summer, and some years, it’s just a blip.

What does this mean?

At its most basic, this is a 30-day lagging number. Real estate deals typically take around 30 days to close. So this means that the peak buying season in the Pacific Northwest is January to April/May. Then 30 days go by, and the deal closes, and we start to see the drop.

I have a theory. I can’t scientifically prove it, but I think it makes sense: Summer.

People have been waiting for good weather, and when it hits, they want to go do things besides buying a house. The kids get out of school, vacations happen, and people come to visit. There are BBQs and graduation parties. People get busy.

So if you are thinking of buying, you have a slight edge when you are looking in the middle of summer.*

It will still be very competitive in many neighborhoods, but your chances, on average, improve.

*I did double-check inventory. It doesn’t perfectly match this graph, but there typically will be fewer houses listed during the summer as well.

If you want to strategize about your real estate journey, let’s do a Ron & Don Sit Down. With recent transactions from Port Townsend to Tacoma, WE SELL THE SOUND.

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